If you read one line about the July 2026 GTA housing market, it was probably this: average prices are down 4.5% from a year ago. That sounds like a buyer’s market. Underneath it is a number that points the other way, and almost nobody led with it.
The Number Nobody Led With
In July 2026, GTA home sales came in at 5,995, down just 0.9% from July 2025. Over the same period, new listings fell to 14,484, down 17.8%. Active listings dropped 12.1%.
Sit with that for a moment. The number of people buying barely moved. The number of homes available to buy fell by nearly a fifth. Whatever is happening to prices, the balance between buyers and sellers shifted toward sellers this summer, not away from them.
Why the Price Headline Lags
Average sale price is a backward-looking number. It reflects deals negotiated weeks earlier, under conditions that may no longer exist. Supply and demand figures are closer to real time, which is why agents watch them and headlines do not.
The measure that captures this best is the sales-to-new-listings ratio, the share of new listings that actually sell. Across the GTA in July it stood at 37.1%. Roughly speaking, under 40% suggests a buyer-leaning market, over 60% a seller-leaning one, with the middle balanced. At 37.1% the GTA is still buyer-leaning, but that ratio rises mechanically when new listings fall faster than sales, which is precisely what happened.
How This Looks Locally
The picture varies considerably across the markets we work in. July 2026 sales-to-new-listings ratios and months of inventory:
- Markham, 39.4% of new listings sold, 4.2 months of inventory. The tightest of the four.
- City of Toronto, 38.1%, 4.6 months.
- Vaughan, 36.7%, 4.9 months.
- York Region overall, 35.6%, 5.0 months.
- Richmond Hill, 33.1%, 5.6 months. The loosest, and the best place in the group to be a buyer right now.
A buyer in Richmond Hill genuinely has more leverage than a buyer in Markham this month. That difference does not show up in any headline about “the GTA market,” and it is the difference between negotiating hard and losing a property.
What Sellers Are Actually Getting
Here is the check on all of this: across these markets, sold homes achieved 97% to 99% of asking price. Richmond Hill and Markham both came in at 99%. Toronto East actually exceeded asking at 101%.
Those are not the numbers of a market where buyers dictate terms. They are the numbers of a market where correctly priced homes sell close to asking and overpriced ones sit. The 4.5% annual price decline is real, but it happened; it is not still happening at that pace week to week.
The Real Cost of Waiting
If you have been holding off, the calculation deserves a second look. Waiting has always meant trading today’s price for tomorrow’s, hoping tomorrow is cheaper. But it also means trading today’s selection for tomorrow’s, and selection is shrinking measurably: 12.1% fewer active listings than a year ago, with new supply down 17.8%.
You may well be right that prices drift lower. You may also find that the specific type of home you want, in the specific pocket you want it, is simply not listed by the time you move. On a detached home in a tight Markham or Vaughan neighbourhood, where only a handful come up in a given season, that risk is not theoretical.
None of that is a reason to rush. It is a reason to stop treating “wait for prices to fall” as a cost-free strategy, because it is not.
What Would Change This
Two things would flip the picture back toward buyers. A jump in new listings, which typically comes in September as sellers who held off over summer come to market. Or a demand shock, which the rate environment does not currently suggest, with the Bank of Canada overnight rate at 2.3% and prime at 4.5%.
Watch the September and October listing counts. If new supply returns in volume, the tightening stalls. If it does not, the ratio keeps climbing and the negotiating room keeps narrowing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it a buyer’s or seller’s market in the GTA right now?
Still technically buyer-leaning, at 37.1% sales-to-new-listings and 4.6 months of inventory GTA-wide, but moving toward balance quickly because supply is falling faster than demand.
What is the sales-to-new-listings ratio?
The share of newly listed homes that sell in a period. It is a leading indicator, so it shifts before prices do, which is why it is more useful than average price for deciding when to act.
Should I wait for prices to drop further before buying?
That depends on how specific your requirements are. Broad requirements, waiting costs little. Narrow requirements in a tight neighbourhood, waiting may cost you the property rather than save you money. Worth modelling against your actual shortlist.
Why are prices down if the market is tightening?
Because price is a lagging measure. July’s average reflects deals struck under earlier conditions. The supply figures describe conditions now.
Trying to work out whether waiting makes sense for your situation? Reach out and we can look at how many homes matching what you actually want have come to market in your area this year.
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Market Watch, July 2026.